Chicago PMI Plunges To Lowest In 4 Years

After slumping into year-end, Regional Fed surveys have (surprisingly) exploded higher this month with Richmond and Philly surveys spiking almost by the most on record.

Today’s Chicago PMI was expected to follow suit – though less excitedly – with a modest gain but instead it missed massively, plunging to its lowest since Dec 2015 – printing 42.9 vs 48.9 expectations.

Source: Bloomberg

This was the biggest miss of expectations since Dec 2015…

Source: Bloomberg

None of the underlying components rose in December:

  • Business barometer fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
  • Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • New orders fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
  • Employment fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
  • Inventories fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
  • Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Production fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
  • Order backlogs fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction

Having tumbled by the most in 39 years last year, Chicago PMI has no been in contraction (sub-50) for 7 months in a row – something it has not done outside of recession… ever.

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder Dec 2015 was the last time China’s economy was in free fall.

Source: ZeroHedge

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.