Tag Archives: New Home Construction

US New Home Sales Fall 12% YoY In October, Down 9% MoM

Another Indicator Bites The Dust

The good news? US GDP rose 3.5% QoQ, even though Personal Consumption was lower than expected at 3.6% and lower than September’s growth.

The bad news? New home sales fell 8.9% MoM in October.

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New home sales declined 12% YoY, tied for the worst reading since 2011.

https://confoundedinterestnet.files.wordpress.com/2018/11/nhsyoyovt18.png?w=625

Yes, as The Fed withdraws monetary stimulus, home building companies are taking the Nestea plunge.

https://confoundedinterestnet.files.wordpress.com/2018/11/hbldfed.png?w=625

Another housing indicator bites the dust.

https://confoundedinterestnet.files.wordpress.com/2018/10/powellfrown.jpg?w=623&h=312

Source: Confounded Interest

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Home Builders Come Clean – Admit Housing Market Optimism Has Collapsed

As Upton Sinclair once famously said:

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

But, after a couple of years of exuberant ignorance, home builders have finally started to face reality – or admit reality – slashing their optimism about the US housing market dramatically…

Against expectations of a 67 print, NAHB’s optimism index crash from 68 to 60 in November – its biggest drop since 2014 (to its lowest since Aug 2016) as the highest borrowing costs in eight years restrain demand, adding to signs of a cooling housing market.

Of course the ‘hard’ housing data has been collapsing for months…

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The home builder index represents one of the first breaks in high levels of business and consumer confidence that have persisted since Trump was elected.

“Rising mortgage interest rates in recent months coupled with the cumulative run-up in pricing has caused housing demand to stall,” NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said in a statement accompanying the data.

“Given that housing leads the economy, policy makers need to focus more on residential market conditions.”

Under the covers, the NAHB sub-index measuring current sales fell seven points to 67, the lowest since August 2016, while the index for the six-month outlook for transactions dropped 10 points to 65, the lowest since May 2016. A measure of prospective buyer traffic declined eight points to 45, also the lowest since August 2016.

Optimism fell across all regions with The West and Northeast falling the most.

Source: ZeroHedge

Lumber Futures Dump As US Construction Spending Slumps – Worst June In 18 Years

Lumber futures prices are limit down today, falling to their lowest price since Dec 2017, erasing much of the post-tariff surge in prices as US construction spending unexpectedly tumbles in June.

Lumber prices are free falling back towards pre-tariff levels…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-08-01_7-38-46.jpg?itok=WEVTZg02

And with home starts, permits, and sales all weaker…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-08-01_7-45-25.jpg?itok=knD1u4BA

It is no surprise that US construction spending tumbled in June…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-08-01_7-25-56.jpg?itok=TlGGU9Qz

Bearing in mind the upward revision for May, this is the worst construction spending drop for a June since the year 2000…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-08-01_7-22-40.jpg?itok=zAgBawuQ

Still seem like a sustainable 4% economy?

Source: ZeroHedge