Serious Credit Card Delinquencies Rise for the Third Straight Quarter: Trend Not Seen Since 2009

Every quarter, the New York Fed publishes a report on Household Debt and Credit.

The report shows serious credit card delinquencies rose for the third consecutive quarter, a trend not seen since 2009.

Let’s take a look at a sampling of report highlights and charts.

Household Debt and Credit Developments in 2017 Q2

  • Aggregate household debt balances increased in the second quarter of 2017, for the 12th consecutive quarter, and are now $164 billion higher than the previous (2008 Q3) peak of $12.68 trillion.
  • As of June 30, 2017, total household indebtedness was $12.84 trillion, a $114 billion (0.9%) increase from the first quarter of 2017. Overall household debt is now 15.1% above the 2013 Q2 trough.
  • The distribution of the credit scores of newly originating mortgage and auto loan borrowers shifted downward somewhat, as the median score for originating borrowers for auto loans dropped 8 points to 698, and the median origination score for mortgages declined to 754.
  • Student loans, auto loans, and mortgages all saw modest increases in their early delinquency flows, while delinquency flows on credit card balances ticked up notably in the second quarter.
  • Outstanding student loan balances were flat, and stood at $1.34 trillion as of June 30, 2017. The second quarter typically witnesses slow or no growth in student loan balances due to the academic cycle.
  • 11.2% of aggregate student loan debt was 90+ days delinquent or in default in 2017 Q2.

Total Debt and Composition:

https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/household-debt-2017-q2a.png?w=768&h=545

Mortgage Origination by Credit Score:

https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/household-debt-2017-q2b.png?w=988&h=700

Auto Origination by Credit Score:

https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/household-debt-2017-q2d.png?w=975&h=700

30-Day Delinquency Transition:

https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/household-debt-2017-q2e.png?w=994&h=700

90-Day Delinquency Transition:

https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/household-debt-2017-q2f.png?w=941&h=700

Credit card and auto loan delinquencies are trending up. The trend in mortgage delinquencies at the 30-day level has bottomed. A rise in serious delinquencies my follow.

By Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Advertisements