Alarm! Europe’s And US Bond Volatility Grinding To A Halt (Precursor To Recession)

European bond volatility (according to the Merrill Lynch 3-month EUR option volatility estimate) has plunged to the lowest level on record.

https://confoundedinterestnet.files.wordpress.com/2019/03/dyingvol.png

A similar chart for the US bond market is the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate for 3-months shows exactly the same thing. The US bond market is grinding to a halt.

https://confoundedinterestnet.files.wordpress.com/2019/03/move3.png

Note that the US MOVE 3-month estimate hit a low in May 2007, just ahead of The Great Recession of 2007-2009.

Alarm!

Source: Confounded Interest

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Stocks End Week With Five Days Of Declines

  • U.S. stocks almost clawed their way to break-even, shaking off concerns over slowing global growth, a weak hiring report in the U.S., and disappointing China trade data.
  • S&P fell 0.2% as did the  Nasdaq, and the Dow nudged down 0.1%.
  • For the week, the Nasdaq declined 2.5%, while the S&P 500 and the Dow each slipped 2.2%.
  • Among industry sectors, utilities (+0.4%) and materials (+0.2%) gained the most on Friday, while energy (-2.0%) and consumer discretionary (-0.7%) were the biggest underperformers.
  • 10-year Treasury yield fell is down about 1 basis point to 2.63%.