Tag Archives: consumer confidence

Consumer Confidence Disappoints As Hope Fades

Following the headline decline for Conference Board Consumer Confidence in November, analysts are expecting an exuberant bounce in December as every asset class rose majestically (despite retail sales slowing).

But, despite record high stocks, the headline consumer confidence data disappointed, printing 126.5 (down from the upwardly revised 126.8) and well below the hopeful 128.5 expected.

While the Present Situation picked up modestly, the Future Outlook weakened:

  • Present situation confidence rose to 170.0 vs 166.6 last month
  • Consumer confidence expectations fell to 97.4 vs 100.3 last month

Combining for the 4th monthly headline drop in the last 5…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, this is the 4th straight month of YoY declines in confidence…

Source: Bloomberg

And expectations for stock market gains also faded…

Source: Bloomberg

Isn’t the whole point of The Fed to pump enthusiasm up “by whatever means”?

Source: Bloomberg

It’s not working!

Source: ZeroHedge

American Spending Grows Faster Than Income For 29th Straight Month

For the 29th month in a row, Americans annual spending grew faster than their incomes as the ‘no consequences’ new normal rolls on, leaving the savings rate languishing near record lows – even if it did very modestly uptick in May.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-06-29%20%281%29.png?itok=bwoEgyRC

Year-over-Year income growth reached 4.0% – the highest since Nov 2015; while YoY spending growth stalled at 4.4%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-06-29_5-34-14.jpg?itok=Ph_kfSrR

Income growth was dominated by private workers seeing another uptick…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-06-29%20%282%29.png?itok=Rji2MdxX

On the month, personal incomes grew 0.4% (as expected) – the fastest rate since Dec 2017.

However, for the second straight month, month-over-month spending growth disappointed – rising just 0.2% MoM vs +0.4% expectations.

But the growth in both continues.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-06-29.png?itok=7iTNQJ3N

The PCE Inflation data came in a little hotter than expected – rising at the fastest since March 2012…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-06-29_5-40-35.jpg?itok=Y55EoCM4

As a reminder, the vast gap between extreme high confidence and extreme low savings rate – a borrow-my-way-to-happiness narrative – has never ended well in the past…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-06-29_5-26-44.jpg?itok=0goOTI__

Remember, nothing lasts forever – ask the German soccer team.

Source: ZeroHedge

Demand for Housing Hits All-Time Low

by Colin Wilhelm

Consumer demand for housing has dropped to its lowest recorded level due to reduced confidence in financial security and income raises, a new survey from Fannie Mae says.

The government-sponsored enterprise’s March national housing survey found that 41% of Americans expect their financial situation to improve over the next year, and 22% said their income had increased substantially over the last year.

Most importantly, the percentage of respondents who said they planned to buy a home dropped five basis points to 60%, an all-time survey low.

“We’ve seen modest improvement in total compensation resulting from a strengthened labor market,” Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan said in a release.

“However, income growth perceptions and personal financial expectations both eased off of recent highs, consistent with Friday’s weak jobs report. Simultaneously, the share of consumers expecting to buy on their next move has declined. Meanwhile, the wait for housing expansion continues.”