As ZeroHedge noted earlier, existing home sales are expected to surge in July (the latest data), playing catch up to the huge rebound in new- and pending-home sales in June.

After a 20.7% MoM surge in June, July’s existing home sales were up a stunning 24.7% MoM (crushing expectations of a 14.6% MoM) and sending home sales up 8.72% YoY.

The SAAR rose from 4.70mm to 5.86mm in July, the highest since Dec 2006…

“The housing market is well past the recovery phase and is now booming with higher home sales compared to the pre-pandemic days,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

“With the sizable shift in remote work, current homeowners are looking for larger homes and this will lead to a secondary level of demand even into 2021.”

The median existing-home price for all housing types in July was $304,100, up 8.5% from July 2019 ($280,400), as prices rose in every region. July’s national price increase marks 101 straight months of year-over-year gains. For the first time ever, national median home prices breached the $300,000 level.

Total housing inventory at the end of July totaled 1.50 million units, down from both 2.6% in June and 21.1% from one year ago (1.90 million).

“The number of new listings is increasing, but they are quickly taken out of the market from heavy buyer competition,” he said. “More homes need to be built.”

Unsold inventory sits at a 3.1-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.9 months in June and down from the 4.2-month figure recorded in July 2019.

“Luxury homes in the suburbs are attracting buyers after having lagged the broader market for the past couple of years,” Yun said.

“Single-family homes are continuing to outperform condominium units, suggesting a preference shift for a larger home, including an extra room for a home office.”

For the second consecutive month, sales for July increased in every region and median home prices grew in each of the four major regions from one year ago.

• Existing-home sales in the Northeast rocketed 30.6%, recording an annual rate of 640,000, a 5.9% decrease from a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $317,800, up 4.0% from July 2019.
• Existing-home sales jumped 27.5% in the Midwest to an annual rate of 1,390,000 in July, up 10.3% from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $244,500, an 8.0% increase from July 2019.
• Existing-home sales in the South shot up 19.4% to an annual rate of 2.59 million in July, up 12.6% from the same time one year ago. The median price in the South was $268,500, a 9.9% increase from a year ago.
• Existing-home sales in the West ascended 30.5% to an annual rate of 1,240,000 in July, a 7.8% increase from a year ago. The median price in the West was $453,800, up 11.3% from July 2019.

The question is – just how low do rates have to keep going (from already record lows now) to maintain this momentum?

Source: ZeroHedge

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After August’s rebound across the housing market – as mortgage rates tumbled – September was expected to see some slowdown but existing home sales fell significantly (dropping 2.2% MoM against expectations of a 0.7% drop).

Existing Home Sales SAAR fell from 5.50mm to 5.38mm in September…

Source: Bloomberg

Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said that despite historically low mortgage rates, sales have not commensurately increased, in part due to a low level of new housing options.

“We must continue to beat the drum for more inventory,” said Yun, who has called for additional home construction for over a year.

“Home prices are rising too rapidly because of the housing shortage, and this lack of inventory is preventing home sales growth potential.”

Regional breakdown:

• September existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 2.8% to an annual rate of 690,000, a 1.5% rise from a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $301,100, up 5.2% from September 2018.
• In the Midwest, existing-home sales dropped 3.1% to an annual rate of 1.27 million, which is nearly equal to August 2018. The median price in the Midwest was $213,500, a 7.2% jump from a year ago.
• Existing-home sales in the South decreased 2.1% to an annual rate of 2.28 million in September, up 6.0% from a year ago. The median price in the South was $237,300, up 6.3% from one year ago.
• Existing-home sales in the West declined 0.9% to an annual rate of 1.14 million in September, 5.6% above a year ago. The median price in the West was $403,600, up 4.5% from September 2018.

 Source: Bloomberg

As price once again becomes an issue.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in September was $272,100, up 5.9% from September 2018 ($256,900), as prices rose in all regions. September’s price increase marks 91 straight months of year-over-year gains.

Total housing inventory at the end of September sat at 1.83 million, approximately equal to the amount of existing-homes available for sale in August, but a 2.7% decrease from 1.88 million one year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.0 months in August and down from the 4.4-month figure recorded in September 2018.

Source: ZeroHedge

Existing Housing Sales Inventory Lowest Since 1999

At the same time, the INVENTORY of existing home sales rose in March, but still remains near its lowest level since 1999.

Existing home sales Median Price YoY has slowed to 3.8% with The Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT). As opposed to 13.4% YoY during The Fed’s QE3.

Time to bring out your Fed!

Source: Confounded Interest

The housing market is cooling, both in terms of existing home sales YoY and median price YoY.

(Bloomberg) — Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell to the weakest pace since November 2015, indicating that the housing market remained in a slowdown despite a drop in mortgage rates.

Contract closings decreased 1.2 percent in January from the prior month to an annual rate of 4.94 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday, below economists’ estimates for 5 million. The median sales price rose 2.8 percent from a year ago, the smallest increase since February 2012.

Is this a trend in median prices YoY for existing home sales?

Milage in your town will vary.

Existing home sales YoY dropped 8.50% in January, continuing the cooling trend that started in 2017.

Source: Confounded Interest

And no, that was not a seasonal effect. Existing home sales declined 6.4% MoM in December, the largest decline since November 2015.

And on a YoY basis, existing home sales plunge 10.25%.

US existing homes are very expensive compared to household income and the surge in mortgage rates during 2018 made housing ever less affordable.

The median price for existing home sales shows a seasonal pattern with June typically being the highest for the calendar year and January being the lowest.

Let’s see how Euro Zone and Japan slipping into darkness impacts the US economy and housing market.

Source: Confounded Interest

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Existing Home Sales Crash In December

Regional breakdown:

• December existing-home sales in the Northeast decreased 6.8 percent to an annual rate of 690,000, 6.8 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $283,400, up 8.2 percent from December 2017.
• In the Midwest, existing-home sales fell 11.2 percent from last month to an annual rate of 1.19 million in December, down 10.5 percent overall from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $191,300, unchanged from last year.
• Existing-home sales in the South dropped 5.4 percent to an annual rate of 2.09 million in December, down 8.7 percent from last year. The median price in the South was $224,300, up 2.5 percent from a year ago.
• Existing-home sales in the West dipped 1.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.02 million in December, 15 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $374,400, up 0.2 percent from December 2017.

The latest results brought the 2018 tally to 5.34 million, the weakest pace since 2015. This is the biggest annual drop in existing home sales in 8 years…

Following the April drop in new home sales amid record high average prices, existing home sales tumbled 2.5% MoM (considerably worse than the 0.9% drop expected) to 5.36m SAAR.

Purchases fell in three of four regions, including a 2.9 percent decline in the South and a 3.3 percent drop in the West

Notably, while single-family home sales decreased 3 percent last month to an annual rate of 4.84 million, purchases of condominium and co-op units rose 1.6 percent to a 620,000 pace.

On a YoY basis, it looks like we have hit peak housing…

“Since NAR began tracking this data in May 2011, the median days a listing was on the market was at an all-time low in April, and the share of homes sold in less than a month was at an all-time high.”

The median existing-home price for all housing types in April was $257,900, up 5.3 percent from April 2017 ($245,000). March’s price increase marks the 74th straight month of year-over-year gains, but price growth is slowing…

And just like new home sales, all the positives are at the higher-end…

“We are seeing no breakout in home sales,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said at a press briefing accompanying the report. “We are stuck in this narrow range at a time when the economy is doing well.”

“However, inventory shortages are even worse than in recent years, and home prices keep climbing above what many home shoppers can afford,” Yun said in a statement.

With mortgage rates at 8-year highs, it should not be surprise…

Source: ZeroHedge