Tag Archives: Existing Home Sales

Existing Home Sales Fall 5.44% Year Over Year In March

Existing Housing Sales Inventory Lowest Since 1999

https://confoundedinterestnet.files.wordpress.com/2019/04/ehsyoyinv.png

At the same time, the INVENTORY of existing home sales rose in March, but still remains near its lowest level since 1999.

Existing home sales Median Price YoY has slowed to 3.8% with The Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT). As opposed to 13.4% YoY during The Fed’s QE3.

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Time to bring out your Fed!

https://confoundedinterestnet.files.wordpress.com/2019/02/powellfrown.jpg

Source: Confounded Interest

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U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall 8.5% YoY In January

The housing market is cooling, both in terms of existing home sales YoY and median price YoY.

(Bloomberg) — Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell to the weakest pace since November 2015, indicating that the housing market remained in a slowdown despite a drop in mortgage rates.

Contract closings decreased 1.2 percent in January from the prior month to an annual rate of 4.94 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday, below economists’ estimates for 5 million. The median sales price rose 2.8 percent from a year ago, the smallest increase since February 2012.

Is this a trend in median prices YoY for existing home sales?

https://confoundedinterestnet.files.wordpress.com/2019/02/medianpriceehsyoy.png

Milage in your town will vary.

Existing home sales YoY dropped 8.50% in January, continuing the cooling trend that started in 2017.

https://confoundedinterestnet.files.wordpress.com/2019/02/ehsyoy.png

I Dont Even Know What This Is Leonardo Dicaprio GIF

Source: Confounded Interest

Existing Home Sales Plunge 10.25% In December As Global Economy Slips Into Darkness

And no, that was not a seasonal effect. Existing home sales declined 6.4% MoM in December, the largest decline since November 2015.

https://confoundedinterestnet.files.wordpress.com/2019/01/ehsdec18.png

And on a YoY basis, existing home sales plunge 10.25%.

https://confoundedinterestnet.files.wordpress.com/2019/01/ehs10.png

US existing homes are very expensive compared to household income and the surge in mortgage rates during 2018 made housing ever less affordable.

The median price for existing home sales shows a seasonal pattern with June typically being the highest for the calendar year and January being the lowest.

Let’s see how Euro Zone and Japan slipping into darkness impacts the US economy and housing market.

https://confoundedinterestnet.files.wordpress.com/2019/01/phillip.jpg

Source: Confounded Interest

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Existing Home Sales Crash In December

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2019-01-22_7-03-38.jpg?itok=hSiVp-Kb

Regional breakdown:

  • December existing-home sales in the Northeast decreased 6.8 percent to an annual rate of 690,000, 6.8 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $283,400, up 8.2 percent from December 2017.
  • In the Midwest, existing-home sales fell 11.2 percent from last month to an annual rate of 1.19 million in December, down 10.5 percent overall from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $191,300, unchanged from last year.
  • Existing-home sales in the South dropped 5.4 percent to an annual rate of 2.09 million in December, down 8.7 percent from last year. The median price in the South was $224,300, up 2.5 percent from a year ago.
  • Existing-home sales in the West dipped 1.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.02 million in December, 15 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $374,400, up 0.2 percent from December 2017.

The latest results brought the 2018 tally to 5.34 million, the weakest pace since 2015. This is the biggest annual drop in existing home sales in 8 years…

Existing Home Sales Drop For 7th Straight Month As Homebuilders Stocks Collapse

With US home builder stocks having their worst year since 2007, hope is high that September will show the long-awaited rebound in home sales (despite a soaring mortgage rate).

After ‘stabilizing’ unchanged in August, existing home sales were expected to drop 0.9% MoM in September, but instead August’s data was revised notably lower and September plunged… down 3.4% MoM – the biggest drop since Feb 2016.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-10-19_7-03-44.jpg?itok=pUjsHZjw

With SAAR at its lowest since Nov 2015…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-10-19_7-05-08.jpg?itok=BO6wHo3b

This is the seventh month in a row of annual declines in existing home sales…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-10-19_7-00-59.jpg?itok=A_tsfp_0

Sales fell across all price ranges (not just the low-end as we have seen recently).

Median home price rose 4.2% from last year to $258,100

And you can’t blame supply as it rose notably – 4.4 months supply in Sept. vs. 4.3 in Aug.

As NAR notes:

“This is the lowest existing home sales level since November 2015,” he said.

A decade’s high mortgage rates are preventing consumers from making quick decisions on home purchases. All the while, affordable home listings remain low, continuing to spur underperforming sales activity across the country.”

“There is a clear shift in the market with another month of rising inventory on a year over year basis, though seasonal factors are leading to a third straight month of declining inventory,” said Yun.

“Homes will take a bit longer to sell compared to the super-heated fast pace seen earlier this year.”

Home builder stocks are collapsing…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-10-19_6-45-35.jpg?itok=cfiJpBtt

This is the worst year for home builder stocks since 2007…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-10-19_6-50-06.jpg?itok=J0Hgbodc

Probably nothing. Just keep hiking rates.

Source: ZeroHedge

Existing Home Sales Tumble In April As Rate-Hikes Crush Affordability

Following the April drop in new home sales amid record high average prices, existing home sales tumbled 2.5% MoM (considerably worse than the 0.9% drop expected) to 5.36m SAAR.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-05-24_7-01-34.jpg?itok=rhJTUljb

Purchases fell in three of four regions, including a 2.9 percent decline in the South and a 3.3 percent drop in the West

Notably, while single-family home sales decreased 3 percent last month to an annual rate of 4.84 million, purchases of condominium and co-op units rose 1.6 percent to a 620,000 pace.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-05-24_7-04-32.jpg?itok=QOW2ty25

On a YoY basis, it looks like we have hit peak housing…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-05-24%20%281%29.png?itok=SrRga-gm

“Since NAR began tracking this data in May 2011, the median days a listing was on the market was at an all-time low in April, and the share of homes sold in less than a month was at an all-time high.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in April was $257,900, up 5.3 percent from April 2017 ($245,000). March’s price increase marks the 74th straight month of year-over-year gains, but price growth is slowing…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-05-24.png?itok=B3T66Cbk

And just like new home sales, all the positives are at the higher-end…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-05-24%20%282%29.png?itok=uN2bczYA

“We are seeing no breakout in home sales,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said at a press briefing accompanying the report. “We are stuck in this narrow range at a time when the economy is doing well.”

“However, inventory shortages are even worse than in recent years, and home prices keep climbing above what many home shoppers can afford,” Yun said in a statement.

With mortgage rates at 8-year highs, it should not be surprise…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-05-24_7-09-18.jpg?itok=byQG4jA0

Source: ZeroHedge

Existing Home Sales Extend Plunge, Biggest Annual Drop Since 2014

After new- and existing-home sales tumbled in December, expectations were for a modest 0.5% rebound in January (despite plunging mortgage applications and soaring rates). But that did not happen as existing home sales tumbled 3.2% MoM to its lowest level since Aug 2016.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-02-21_7-02-30.jpg?itok=nohBLCql

NOTE – this data is based on signed contracts from Nov/DEC, which means the recent spike in rates is not even hitting this yet)

Existing home sales are down 4.8% YoY – the biggest drop since August 2014.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-02-21_7-12-57.jpg?itok=qlkJcTOR

The West (-5.0%) and Midwest (-6.0%) saw the biggest drop in sales and while the blame (see below) was put on inventories, data shows a 4.1% increase in “available for sale” homes?

Of course NAR is careful to blame inventories – and not soaring rates affecting affordability: Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says January’s retreat in closings highlights the housing market’s glaring inventory shortage to start 2018.

“The utter lack of sufficient housing supply and its influence on higher home prices muted overall sales activity in much of the U.S. last month,” he said.

“While the good news is that Realtors® in most areas are saying buyer traffic is even stronger than the beginning of last year, sales failed to follow course and far lagged last January’s pace.

“It’s very clear that too many markets right now are becoming less affordable and desperately need more new listings to calm the speedy price growth.”

The median existing-home price in January was $240,500, up 5.8% from January 2017.

First-time buyers were 29 percent of sales in January, which is down from 32 percent in December 2017 and 33 percent a year ago.

“The gradual uptick in wages over the last few months is a promising development for the housing market, but there’s risk these income gains could be offset by the recent jump in mortgage rates,” said Yun.

“That is why the pace of added new and existing supply in the months ahead is worth monitoring. If inventory conditions can improve enough to cool the swift price growth in several markets, most prospective buyers should be able to absorb the higher borrowing costs.

So, will higher rates break housing market momentum?

The following chart suggest ‘yes’ – that surge in rates will have a direct impact on home sales (or prices will be forced to adjust lower) as affordability collapses…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-02-08_8-20-26.jpg

Source: ZeroHedge