Category Archives: Retail Sales

Mansion Crisis: Hamptons Housing Market Had Its Worst Spring Quarter In 8 Years

Hamptons, the beachfront playground for New York City’s financial elite, just recorded the worst second quarter for sales in eight years, according to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel, and first reported by CNBC.

Real estates sales and prices in the Hamptons extended lower through 2Q19, indicating the luxury home market continues to stagnate for the last six quarters, the report said.

The weakness in the Hamptons was confusing for CNBC, considering they said real estate in the region should have been positive because the stock market is higher. But as Zerohedge readers know, the stock market has remained extremely disconnected from fundamentals this year, if not the last decade.

The Hamptons is experiencing the same pressures as many luxury markets across the country: an oversupply of mansions, dwindling demand from foreign buyers, changes to SALT deductions, and sellers who have become delusional that real estate prices can still hold 2014 values.

With no end in sight, the bust of the Hamptons real estate market could become more severe through 2020.

Miller Samuel said the number of homes listed in the region doubled in 2Q19, to 2,500. This is the highest level the research firm has recorded since it started gathering data in 2006.

According to the report, there is a 5-month supply of listings, with more than a three-year supply of luxury properties.

“I think it’s premature to talk about a turnaround until the inventory growth slows down,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, the appraisal firm.

“There is just not a sense of urgency. The buyers are just waiting it out.”

Brokers told CNBC that demand is showing up for more affordable homes but not for +$5 million.

“You might look at Zillow and see nine properties on the oceanfront in Southampton, which looks like a lot,” said Cody Vichinsky of Bespoke Real Estate in the Hamptons.

“But then you dig into it, and you see that six of them are in places where you’d never want to live, with constant helicopter noise or a triple dune or encumbrances. And then the others, the price is ridiculous. When a property is priced decently, it goes.”

Glancing at Zillow Hamptons, hundreds of homes are for sale ranging from $625k to $60 million.

In a recent listing, the family of James Evans, the former chairman of the Union Pacific railroad empire, put their waterfront estate in East Hampton on the market for $60 million. The 5,500-square-foot home sits on 5.4 oceanfront acres, has an estimated mortgage payment of $362k per month.

A $49 million mansion on 4.5 acres with 430 feet of direct oceanfront has been on the market for 850 days.

The pullback in Hamptons real estate is a sobering reminder that inventory is building to levels that are making sellers uncomfortable, could unleash panic selling and metastasize into a full-blown market rout with implications beyond New York City.

Source: ZeroHedge

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Armed Realtors Face Off With Menacing Attacker (VIDEOS)

Two Ohio realtors with concealed carry permits came up against an armed man inside one of their empty properties who said he was going to attack them. The real estate agents, Kyle Morrical and his father Phil Morrical III, encountered Derek Miller inside a vacant house in Hamilton that had been reportedly broken into the day before.

“He told us he had a gun and a knife. He was either going to shoot us or stab us and he punched me in my face,” Kyle told Local 12.

That’s when Kyle pulled his gun and the father-and-son pair held the attacker down while a neighbor called the police. Miller was taken into custody and charged with assault, menacing and trespassing.

The Morrical’s, who showed off a collection of compact semi-autos by Glock, Ruger, and S&W to local media, said they go to the range at least once a month to practice.

“I hoped I would never have to use it because it’s one of those things that you hope you never have to use, but you have it just in case,” Kyle said.

According to the National Association of Realtors, their group’s 2018 safety report found that 43 percent of members choose to carry self-defense weapons. The group represents some 1.3 million members.

The National Rifle Association profiled a group of real estate agents in Ohio in 2015 who chose to get their concealed handgun license following the murder of two realtors on the job.

Source: by Chris Eger | Guns.com

US Department Store Sales Lowest Since 1992 (Retail REIT and CMBS Alert!)

The US Commerce Department reported that Department stores are a “wipeout.”

E-commerce continue to wipeout brick and mortar store sales.

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At the same time, e-commerce sales continue to rise.

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It’s not the end of the world for bricks and mortar shopping. Consumers still eat out at restaurants, use fitness clubs, bars, etc. But, it does cause a rethinking of retail REIT and CMBS valuation and growth projections.

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Source: Confounded Interest

How To Discover Who Is Visiting Your Real Estate IDX Website

You cannot find out individual visitors to your site, but you can use some freely available software, such as Google Analytics, to find out how many visitors come to your site, when they are most likely to browse, and their preferred content.

In traditional brick and mortar real estate, you want to know everyone who walks through your office door. You want to greet them personally, gather their contact information, and learn how you can help them. Online real estate is a bit different. Because you cannot talk to them face to face, you need to use software tools to “get to know” your website visitors.

The easiest and most widely used is Google Analytics. Launched in 2005, Google Analytics is now used on more than 50 million sites around the web. The software works by adding tracking code to your website. This code registers activity on your site and sends it to Google where it is aggregated and presented in the Google Analytics reports page.

Google Analytics and similar software can help you understand the type of content that is most popular on your site and the type of visitors it attracts. This can help you develop more targeted content and generate more leads.

To set up Google Analytics, you will need to have a Google account. Then, you will use a plugin to install the tracking code on your website. Once it starts gathering data, you will be able to view and analyze your website traffic by logging into the Google Analytics reports portal.

Step 1: Log into Google Analytics

If you don’t have a Google account already you should create one.

Step 2: Provide Website Information

On the New Account page, you should select Website.  Then, provide a name for you account and website, as well as, your website url and your time zone.

Step 3: Copy Tracking ID

Your Google Analytics account is now ready. Google will provide a tracking code. You should keep a copy of this because in the next steps you will be adding it to your website.

Step 4: Connect Your Site and Google Analytics Account

There are several plugins available to connect your website and Analytics account. Choose the one that best fits your web platform and analytics needs. Then, install it and follow the prompts to authenticate your account.

Google Analytics is now running on your site and the software will begin collecting information about your website visitors. To see the reports, you should log into your Google Analytics page. Here are some key panels in your Google Analytics reports. The best users regularly monitor these panels and make adjustments on their site to maximize lead generation.

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Audience

The audience panel shows you the number of users on your site over the last week with breakdowns for language, web browser, desktop/mobile, and new visitor/returning visitor. You can use this information to adjust your content schedule to post new content when your traffic is highest.

Demographics

The demographics panel provides breakdowns by age and gender, including the share of your website visitors each category represents over time. You can use this information to get a better sense of your typical website visitors and tailor content to them.

Location

The location panel provides the home country of your website visitors. This can be particularly useful if you are seeking to attract international buyers. The panel also session duration and the number of pages viewed per session for each country.

Pages

The pages panel allows you to call information about a page or pages with specific content. Simply type in a search term, and the panel will return page views, entrances, and bounce rate for all the pages on your site containing that term in the url.

Source: by Morgan Taylor | Active Rain

Clearing Out A Walmart Then Reselling It On Amazon Can Make You Millions

Turns out, clearing out a Target or Walmart, then reselling it all on Amazon, can make you enough money to pay off your house.

(MEL Magazine) On one of my more recent voyages down a YouTube wormhole, I was introduced to a suspiciously profitable practice called retail arbitrage. The concept is fairly simple: You purchase products from a retail store, like Walmart or Target, and then you sell them somewhere else, like Amazon, for a higher price.

Here’s an example: In one video that I stumbled upon, an arbitrager purchases 182 ‘Monopoly for Millennials’ board games from several local Walmarts, for $19.82 each. Then, within less than 24 hours, he managed to sell 131 of them on Amazon for $77.29 each, which leaves him with an impressive profit of $2,500, even after deducting shipping costs and fees (he presumably sold the remaining 51 board games on a later date for even more profit).

After watching this video, I had so many questions — namely, does this actually work for most people, and if so, why aren’t more people doing it? I also couldn’t help but wonder whether employees (and other customers) get upset when you walk out of the store with 182 ‘Monopoly for Millennials’ board games. To answer these questions, and to get a better sense of how retail arbitrage actually works, I sat down with YouTuber and retail arbitrager Shane Myers, who also made a killing flipping the same ‘Monopoly for Millennials’ game.

First things first: How’d you even get into retail arbitrage?

I actually have a retail background — I worked in retail management for nine years, and I was also an executive manager for Target. I learned a lot of this business through retail, and I just apply it as retail arbitrage. I know a lot about inventory systems and stuff like that. If you have a little bit of that knowledge, you’re going to have a leg up on everybody else trying to make money online.

Can you tell me about some of your more recent retail-arbitrage endeavors?

I actually just picked up, about one or two weekends ago, a bunch of light bulbs. A light bulb is an everyday item that people use, so there’s always a need for them, and I picked them up on clearance at Walmart for $2 each. I was actually able to identify the markdown before Walmart caught it: They were assigned at $9 each, and I bought them for $2 each, which is a huge, huge thing — you’re almost guaranteed that nobody else has bought them, since they’re still assigned at full price.

So I bought 218 packages of light bulbs after travelling around to several Walmarts within a 150-mile radius, and I was able to send them all into Amazon FBA, which is Fulfillment by Amazon. I’m going to net anywhere between $4 and $5 of profit for each package, which comes to about $1,100 or $1,200, give or take.

Another example, which you can see in my most current YouTube video [above], involves me going around to Walmarts to buy iHome vanity mirrors. They were on a Christmas special, and I bought them for $12.45. But they sell on Amazon for anywhere between $75 and $90, so I’m probably looking at a profit of around $4,000.

You said you noticed the markdown before Walmart did. Um, how?

I use a site called BrickSeek, and I pay $30 a month for an extreme plan. It doesn’t only help people who do retail arbitrage, it also helps people who just love good deals. But it helps retail arbitrageurs, because we can actually see the markdowns at local Walmarts — it’s tied into their corporate somehow, and it gives us on-hand item counts in the store and tells us which stores have them.

How the hell do you even ship 218 packs of light bulbs?

I have a business license, and I’m registered on Amazon as a third-party seller, meaning I can leverage Amazon FBA. I just print out some labels to stick on every item, and then I put a bunch of items in a box — the boxes can weigh no more than 50 pounds and can only be 24 inches long. Then, I send them to Amazon, where they stock the items in their warehouse, and as they sell, Amazon fulfills them for you and takes care of customer service.

Doesn’t all that shipping dip into your profits, though?

No! I shipped out 298 pounds of light bulbs for about $65. Amazon leverages FedEx and UPS corporate shipping to give people a good deal.

Have you ever bought a bunch of stuff that just didn’t sell?

You’re always worried, especially when you’re putting down a large investment. For the light bulbs, I was out about $600, and for the iHomes, I was out about $1,200. But I’ve actually made bigger purchases than that: I have a video where I went out and bought 136 “Monopoly for Millennials” games, and the cost was probably around $3,000.

So you always worry, but you can leverage tools to help you build data to know that it’s a good product that selling. On Amazon, when you scan the item on the seller app, it’s going to give you a rank — it might say that you’re ranked 100,000 for that item. But I use two free programs that are amazing: camelcamelcamel.com and keepa.com. You can take the Universal Product Code, look up the item on those websites, and you can see a year’s worth of data (if the data exists) on price, like whether the price has dropped significantly during certain times of the year. You can also look up a sales rank chart to narrow down about how many times an item sells per month.

Do store employees ever get upset when you come in and buy everything?

Not usually. Walmart actually loves to sell clearance — if it’s clearance, they want it out of their store. Once in a while, though, you’ll run into a store that gives you a super hard time or won’t sell you the items. But for Walmart, that’s very few and far between. Different retail stores are different, though: I know that Target is very against resellers. If it’s clearance, they usually don’t care, but if it’s a normal-priced item, they’ll probably limit you.

Seems like you have this all figured out, so is this your full-time gig?

I actually work a full-time job, and I do this on the side. About a year from now, I’ll be doing this full time. Last month, on Amazon alone, I sold $10,000 worth of products. I’ve paid off about 78 percent of my debt doing this, so I’m playing the long game. I’m paying off debt, and in a couple years, I should have my house paid off. That way, I can just leave my job, do this full-time and not have to worry about bills and debt.

Impressive! Do you think people will be upset to find out that you’re making money by essentially selling items for more than they would be at the store?

If you go to a retail store and buy all of one item, some of the customers might be a little upset at you. But you have to realize that, when you sell online and do retail arbitrage, you’re doing the exact same thing that Walmart or Target is doing. They’re buying an item at a low price, and they’re selling it to a user for more. It’s the exact same thing, but it has a negative connotation, because people don’t understand that Walmart is doing that, since they’re so used to going to the store to buy stuff.

Source: ZeroHedge

Authored by Ian Lecklitner of MEL Magazine

San Diego Home Sales Collapse To Lowest Level In 11 Years

A combination of rapid mortgage rate increases and decreased affordability, San Diego County home sales collapsed 17.5% to the lowest level in 11 years last month, in the first meaningful sign that one of the country’s hottest real estate markets could be at a turning point, real estate tracker CoreLogic reported Tuesday.

In September, 2,942 homes were sold in the county, down from 3,568 sales last year. This was the lowest number of sales for the month since the start of the financial crisis when 2,152 sold in September 2007.

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CoreLogic said median home prices dropped in the region to $575,000, the first decline since January, after hitting a record high of $583,000 in August.

Some experts blamed the slowdown on rising mortgage rates, which have drastically increased the per month debt servicing payments for potential new homebuyers.

“The double whammy of higher prices and rising mortgage rates has priced out some would-be buyers and prompted others to take a wait-and-see stance,” said Andrew LePage, a CoreLogic analyst, in the release. “There was one caveat to last month’s sharp annual sales decline — this September had one less business day for recording transactions. Adjusting for that, the year-over-year decline would be about 13 percent, still the largest in four years.”

On a monthly basis, sales declined 22% in September compared with August. Cyclically, sales tend to drop 10% from August to September, but this time, it seems that industry is experiencing late cycle stress.

The report also said sales of newly built homes are suffering more than sales of existing homes because home builder production remains below the historical mean. New home constructions come at a premium. Sales of newly built homes were 47% below the September average dating back to 1988, while sales of existing homes were 22% below their long-term average.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller San Diego Home Price NSA Index (data via Reuters Eikon) shows a potential double top with 2005 high. Lifetime high occurred in July 2018 of 259.69, with the index now fading into the Fall period.

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Additional S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller San Diego Home Price data

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“Price growth is moderating amid slower sales and more listings in many markets,” LePage said. “This is welcome news for potential home buyers, but many still face a daunting hurdle – the monthly mortgage payment, which has been pushed up sharply by rising mortgage rates.”

Last month, Bank of America Called It: “The Peak In Home Sales Has Been Reached; Housing No Longer A Tailwind.” It seems that the San Diego real estate market woes are more evidence that storm clouds are gathering over the broader U.S real estate market.

Source: ZeroHedge

Massive Collapse in Brand Image for Nike Following New Colin Kaepernick Branding Campaign…

Never before in the history of corporate branding decisions has a multi-billion dollar company had such a massive and swift drop of brand image as Nike.  The results from Morning Consult Intelligence, a firm that specializes in monitoring and measuring the brand image and reputation for thousands of major companies, reflects a massive drop in brand image across every single demographic.

We suspected there would be a diminishment of brand image, but nothing like the scale discovered within the polled data:

The report features over 8,000 interviews conducted among American adults, including 1,694 interviews pre-campaign launch (8/26/18 – 9/3/18) and 5,481 interviews post-campaign launch (9/4/18 – 9/5/18). Additionally, Morning Consult conducted a study among 1,168 adults in the U.S. about Nike’s ad and the decision to choose Kaepernick as the face of the campaign.

  • Nike’s Favorability Drops by Double Digits: Before the announcement, Nike had a net +69 favorable impression among consumers, it has now declined 34 points to +35 favorable.

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  • No Boost Among Key Demos: Among younger generations, Nike users, African Americans, and other key demographics, Nike’s favorability declined rather than improved.
  • Purchasing Consideration Also Down: Before the announcement, 49 percent of Americans said they were absolutely certain or very likely to buy Nike products. That figure is down to 39 percent now.

FULL Polling Data Available Here

From a pure economic/financial perspective this Nike branding campaign doesn’t make sense.  On its face, it just seems absurd. Why would any major corporation intentionally stake out a branding position that is adverse to their financial interests?

The most likely answer is HERE

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Source: by Sundance | The Conservative Tree House